used a value of 8, 22 and in African children Hendriksen et al. used a value of 3 (based on in vitro and non-human primate data). 30 Importantly, our main findings were robust to variation of this parameter over Ku-0059436 order most of the range of replication rates

estimated to occur in African children with SM (as shown in Table 4). 29 Furthermore, sequestered-parasite biomass in children with CM in our study was quantitatively similar to that estimated mathematically from parasite clearance curves in Gambian children with CM. 41 In a sensitivity analysis we found that our main conclusions were robust to reasonable variations in model parameters. However, we have made the same assumptions as Dondorp et al., that model parameters are the same for UM and SM, and do not vary during the course of infection. 22 Although data from humans to inform between-group and temporal variations in model parameters is lacking, recent data from Plasmodium berghei ANKA infection in mice suggests that the sequestration rate and the clearance rate of sequestered-parasites may be dynamic throughout the course of an infection, 42 making this an important area for future study. It is also important to consider potential sources of bias in our study which might influence our results. Antibodies against PfHRP2 might cause under-estimation of sequestered biomass

in SM relative to UM cases, but young Gambian children (who are most likely to have SM) are the least likely to have antibodies to P. falciparum antigens. 43 Prior antimalarial treatment and polyclonal infections might cause deviation from the basic assumptions of the model, 22 but we selleck chemicals llc found no evidence of any interaction between age, prior antimalarial treatment, or clonality of infection, with severity and sequestered-parasite burden. Differences in parasite multiplication rate between UM and SM cases might be a source of bias. 22 However, parasite multiplication rate is thought to be reduced at high parasite densities, 44 which we observed predominantly in

SM cases; using the same multiplication rate for UM and SM is thus expected to lead to over- rather than under-estimation of the total parasite biomass in children with SM. Other causes of illness may mimic the clinical features of SM in children with incidental parasitaemia and lead to Masitinib (AB1010) misclassification. One postmortem study showed that 23% of clinically defined fatal cases of CM had an alternative cause of death, 21 but there are no comparable data for other SM syndromes or for survivors of SM. By comparison our study was conducted in a relatively low transmission setting 43 (which reduces the likelihood of incidental parasitaemia), 45 used a relatively high cut-off peripheral parasitaemia for inclusion (which improves the specificity of diagnosis of malaria), 45 and we found no evidence of bacterial co-infection, the most likely alternative or confounding cause of severe illness, using specific PCR for the two most common bacterial pathogens.