Current land cover We used the 1 km resolution Global Land Cover 2000 (GLC2000) map [European Commission Joint Research Centre (EU JRC) 2003] to derive the fraction of each cell corresponding to the following three current land cover classes: (1) forested land (GLC2000 classes 1–6); (2) other natural lands (GLC2000 classes 7–15 and 50 % of the mixed classes 17 and 18), such as shrubland, herbaceous land and mangroves; and (3) cultivated or managed areas (GLC2000 classes 16 and 50 % of classes 17 and 18), which include land converted for crop production and

managed pasture (but not Histone Methyltransferase inhibitor unmanaged pasture land, which is included under other natural land cover). GLC2000 land cover data have been produced and validated regionally and are generally Bafilomycin A1 in vitro considered more accurate and identify forest cover more accurately than alternatives (e.g. 81 % accuracy for forest

vs 60 % accuracy for GlobCover 2005; Fritz et al. 2011), and for the purpose of this study were considered the best available data (Mayaux et al. 2006). Biophysical suitability for agriculture We obtained Selleckchem Combretastatin A4 5′ × 5′ resolution data on land suitability for agriculture from the Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ; van Velthuizen et al. 2007). In their analysis, for each grid cell, suitability was assessed based on biophysical factors (including climate, soil and terrain conditions) for nine major crop groups (cereals, fibre crops, fibres, oil crops, pulses, roots and tubers, sugar crops, tree fruits and vegetables). The

GAEZ methodology provides a suitability index (SI) for each grid cell for each crop under different input levels. We used SI data that assumes “maximised technological 4-Aminobutyrate aminotransferase mix” for rain-fed agriculture (e.g. the higher level of technology and management inputs will be employed only in areas capable of producing high yields under those systems; for details how the SI was derived see van Velthuizen et al. 2007). Although biophysical factors do not ‘drive’ land-cover change directly, they influence land cover allocation decisions (e.g. according to slope or soil quality) (Verburg et al. 2004). Economic Pressure on Land index Our “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) index synthesizes distinct, but fundamentally synergistic demographic and economic forces related to land-cover change. Each grid cell is subject to an economic force for conversion that radiates from the nearest market in a direct relation to that market’s demand and in an inverse relation to the travel distance between the grid cell and the market.